Data-Driven Demand Forecasting for Water Heaters
Client Overview
With 65+ years in the market, Venus is among India’s most trusted water heater brands, selling via e-commerce (Amazon, Flipkart, website) and offline dealer networks nationwide.
The Challenge
Despite strong brand recognition, Venus faced:
- Flat budget allocation across regions, ignoring demand hotspots.
- No clarity on storage vs instant heater performance by geography.
- Seasonal peaks (winter/monsoon) not forecasted → wasted ad spend.
- Reporting limited to CTR/clicks, not business-impact KPIs like inventory planning or retention.
Our Approach
1) Data Collection
- Online: GA4 (website traffic/conversions), Amazon Seller Central (product sales/reviews), Meta + Google Ads performance.
- Offline: Distributor POS data, service/warranty records, dealer sales reports.
- ETL: Supermetrics + Python pipelines → BigQuery warehouse.
2) Analytics & Dashboards
- Regional Demand: Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Chandigarh → highest winter-time sales.
- Product Mix: Storage heaters dominated North; Instant heaters surged in South & West.
- Seasonality: Prophet forecasts → 20–25% higher winter demand; coastal cities spiked in monsoon.
- Customer Feedback: 72% positive on Amazon; negatives highlighted installation/service delays in Tier-2 cities.
- Dashboards: Power BI/Tableau for marketing dashboard services and forecast-driven planning.
3) Digital Campaign Optimization
- Channel mix: Google Search + Meta Ads prioritized for high-demand SKUs.
- Geo-targeting: Increased Delhi/Mumbai spends in winter; reduced Chennai/Hyderabad in low demand.
- Remarketing: Email + WhatsApp for warranty renewals, service offers.
- Automation: Google Ads API auto-adjusted budgets (+₹10k to Mumbai campaigns when demand forecasts rose).
4) Business Decisions
- Budget Efficiency: 25% lower ad waste in low-demand months.
- ROI Impact: +35% uplift in high-demand regions.
- Inventory: Forecast-driven stocking for distributors before winter.
- Retention: Personalized campaigns for high repeat-purchase cities.
Results
- +35% ROI uplift in targeted metros.
- 25% reduction in wasted ad spend.
- Forecast-linked media → proactive, not reactive campaigns.
- Customer sentiment + retention data fed into sales and after-sales strategy.
Why This Matters
Consumer durable campaigns often waste money by treating India as one market. By applying regional demand analysis, seasonal forecasting, and sentiment-based targeting, Venus transformed water heater marketing from reactive spend into proactive planning. This case proves how an analytics-first approach delivers ROI, efficiency, and stronger retention.